Newton Fund - Wallacea ProgrammeNewton Fund - Wallacea ProgrammeResearchers led by University of Kent and Universitas Indonesia modelled deforestation and predicted risk of future forest loss.
Conversion of forests has been much slower in Wallacea than in other regions. However, if current trends continue, up to 49,570 km2 of forests could be lost to mining, agriculture, and infrastructural development by the 2050s, particularly in Central Sulawesi and Halmahera.
Among 227 priority sites for endemic and threatened biodiversity (Key Biodiversity Areas) those that are small, coastal and unprotected are the most vulnerable to forest fragmentation and loss, implying that interventions should target these areas to safeguard forests and biodiversity.
Wallacea is well known for its bird fauna, supporting 764 species, including 250 restricted to single islands.
Bird counts and bioacoustic surveys in the forest-farmland landscapes of Sulawesi and Maluku show a consistent pattern of biotic homogenisation, whereby specialist narrow-range species are disappearing from farmland far from forests.
As forest is converted to agriculture bird communities are becoming simpler versions of their former selves. With the ultimate disappearance of crucial seed dispersers and pollinators this could have far-reaching implications for the ability of forests to recover from disturbance and environmental shocks.
The team is linking biodiversity information with the deforestation forecasts to reveal the optimal areas for conservation and climate change mitigation while ensuring people still benefit from their natural environment.
Mitchell et al. 2022. Severity of deforestation mediates biotic homogenisation in an island archipelago. Ecography. e05990.
Voigt, et al. 2021. Emerging threats from deforestation and forest fragmentation in the Wallacea centre of endemism. Environmental Research Letters 16: 094048.
Winarni et al 2023. Bird diversity in forest and coconut farms of Sulawesi, Indonesia.
